Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00225875           5          38          47          10           0        C1.5
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000855902           7          50          36           7           0        B8.2
GOES Xray  =   1.76030e-07          10          46          36           8           0        B8.9
est. ISN   =       30.0000           5          46          41           8           0        B9.9
 
together                             6.75       45.00       40.00        8.25        0.00     B9.6
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)