Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00228140           3          32          55          10           0        C1.8
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000963382           3          17          55          22           3        C2.9
GOES Xray  =   1.87000e-07           6          45          40           9           0        B9.9
est. ISN   =       42.0000           5          36          52           5           2        C1.3
 
together                             4.25       32.50       50.50       11.50        1.25     C1.5
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)