Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00220412           8          44          39           9           0        B9.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000788428          13          47          35           5           0        B6.3
GOES Xray  =   1.01000e-07           7          60          29           4           0        B5.1
est. ISN   =       11.0000          22          58          18           2           0        B2.8
 
together                            12.50       52.25       30.25        5.00        0.00     B5.4
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)