Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00224728           5          50          42           3           0        B8.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000801432          13          47          34           6           0        B7.1
GOES Xray  =   2.00000e-07           3          45          47           5           0        C1.0
est. ISN   =       19.0000          15          59          23           3           0        B3.6
 
together                             9.00       50.25       36.50        4.25        0.00     B7.4
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)