Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00248306           2           3          57          31           7        C6.8
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00126248           2           2          64          28           4        C6.3
GOES Xray  =   4.59000e-07           2           1          78          18           1        C4.5
est. ISN   =       72.0000           1           5          54          36           4        C7.0
 
together                             1.75        2.75       63.25       28.25        4.00     C5.7
 
realized                                                                                      C2.2