Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00222011           6          47          40           7           0        B9.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000806099          11          45          40           4           0        B7.3
GOES Xray  =   1.46000e-07          12          60          27           1           0        B6.9
est. ISN   =       47.0000           4          23          62           9           2        C1.9
 
together                             8.25       43.75       42.25        5.25        0.50     B9.6
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)