Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00247574           1           4          51          39           5        C8.4
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00122506           1           2          64          30           3        C6.0
GOES Xray  =   1.05000e-06           1           0          28          58          13        M1.7
est. ISN   =       100.000           1           1          65          29           4        C6.3
 
together                             1.00        1.75       52.00       39.00        6.25     C8.6
 
realized                                                                                      X3.2