Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00223299           6          53          35           6           0        B8.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000917778           3          23          52          19           3        C2.6
GOES Xray  =   2.23000e-07           3          42          50           5           0        C1.1
est. ISN   =       62.0000           5          14          59          20           2        C3.5
 
together                             4.25       33.00       49.00       12.50        1.25     C1.7
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)