Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00227655           3          33          53          11           0        C1.7
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00100238           2          12          64          18           4        C3.7
GOES Xray  =   2.91000e-07           2          22          68           8           0        C1.7
est. ISN   =       31.0000           5          47          40           8           0        B9.8
 
together                             3.00       28.50       56.25       11.25        1.00     C1.9
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)