Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00218597          17          52          30           1           0        B5.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000815290          10          42          41           7           0        B9.6
GOES Xray  =   1.50000e-07          10          60          28           2           0        B7.0
est. ISN   =       9.00000          37          46          15           2           0        B1.6
 
together                            18.50       50.00       28.50        3.00        0.00     B5.3
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)