Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00215028          33          49          15           3           0        B2.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000757566          18          41          32           9           0        B6.1
GOES Xray  =   1.12000e-07           7          56          35           2           0        B5.6
est. ISN   =       17.0000          17          63          17           3           0        B2.9
 
together                            18.75       52.25       24.75        4.25        0.00     B4.0
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)