Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00235028           5          10          58          24           3        C4.1
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00115384           1           2          67          27           3        C4.8
GOES Xray  =   4.59000e-07           2           1          78          18           1        C4.5
est. ISN   =       80.0000           1           3          65          27           4        C5.6
 
together                             2.00        4.25       67.00       24.00        2.75     C4.6
 
realized                                                                                      C1.5