Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00223793           5          48          42           5           0        B9.6
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000869560           3          39          48          10           0        C1.5
GOES Xray  =   3.41000e-07           3           6          74          17           0        C2.4
est. ISN   =       61.0000           3          15          61          19           2        C3.7
 
together                             3.50       27.00       56.25       12.75        0.50     C1.9
 
realized                                                                                      C2.1