Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00230526           2          20          59          16           3        C2.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000872362           3          40          47          10           0        C1.5
GOES Xray  =   1.14000e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =       74.0000           1           8          55          33           3        C6.6
 
together                             1.75       17.00       46.50       29.50        5.25     C4.5
 
realized                                                                                      M4.5