Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00233599           4          15          59          20           2        C3.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000896363           3          33          49          13           2        C1.8
GOES Xray  =   2.78000e-07           3          30          60           7           0        C1.4
est. ISN   =       16.0000          16          65          16           3           0        B2.7
 
together                             6.50       35.75       46.00       10.75        1.00     C1.4
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)