Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00234587           5          11          59          22           3        C3.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000941042           1          15          57          24           3        C2.8
GOES Xray  =   2.80000e-07           3          29          61           7           0        C1.4
est. ISN   =       37.0000           6          49          35          10           0        B8.3
 
together                             3.50       26.25       53.00       15.75        1.50     C1.8
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)