Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00241832           1           2          65          26           6        C5.8
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00106718           3           4          70          18           5        C4.4
GOES Xray  =   4.98000e-07           2           1          63          34           0        C6.1
est. ISN   =       69.0000           1           5          68          24           2        C4.2
 
together                             1.25        3.50       66.50       25.50        3.25     C5.1
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)