Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00230394           1          19          59          18           3        C2.8
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000865261           6          42          44           8           0        C1.1
GOES Xray  =   2.27000e-07           4          38          52           6           0        C1.2
est. ISN   =            31           5          47          40           8           0        B9.8
 
together                             4.00       36.50       48.75       10.00        0.75     C1.4
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)