Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00230068           1          21          58          17           3        C2.8
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000824321           7          44          41           8           0        B9.8
GOES Xray  =   2.25000e-07           4          41          50           5           0        C1.1
est. ISN   =            25           7          55          32           6           0        B6.5
 
together                             4.75       40.25       45.25        9.00        0.75     C1.2
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)