Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00241449           1           3          62          27           7        C4.8
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000944296           1          15          57          24           3        C3.0
GOES Xray  =   7.61000e-07           1           0          49          42           8        M1.0
est. ISN   =            62           5          14          59          20           2        C3.5
 
together                             1.50        8.50       56.75       28.25        5.00     C4.5
 
realized                                                                                      M1.3