Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00223910           5          47          42           6           0        B9.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000669934          26          61          11           2           0        B2.1
GOES Xray  =   1.75000e-07          11          46          36           7           0        B8.5
est. ISN   =            10          29          51          18           2           0        B2.5
 
together                            17.75       51.25       26.75        4.25        0.00     B5.3
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)