Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00222512           6          47          41           6           0        B9.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000653536          35          57           7           1           0        B1.5
GOES Xray  =   1.01000e-07           7          60          29           4           0        B5.1
est. ISN   =             7          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            24.75       51.00       21.50        2.75        0.00     B3.6
 
realized                                                                                      B1.5