Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00236511           2          14          59          20           5        C4.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000923631           2          20          52          24           2        C2.8
GOES Xray  =   4.40000e-07           1           2          83          13           1        C3.4
est. ISN   =            43           4          35          54           5           2        C1.3
 
together                             2.25       17.75       62.00       15.50        2.50     C2.6
 
realized                                                                                      C1.5