Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00231505           3          16          59          19           3        C2.9
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000975343           3          17          56          20           4        C2.9
GOES Xray  =   2.20000e-07           2          43          50           5           0        C1.1
est. ISN   =            24           8          54          33           5           0        B6.5
 
together                             4.00       32.50       49.50       12.25        1.75     C1.7
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)