Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00231939           3          16          57          22           2        C3.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000995217           2          14          62          18           4        C3.7
GOES Xray  =   2.26000e-07           4          40          51           5           0        C1.1
est. ISN   =            21          12          52          33           3           0        B6.5
 
together                             5.25       30.50       50.75       12.00        1.50     C1.8
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)