Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00235994           2          14          56          24           4        C4.0
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00105456           3           6          64          18           9        C3.8
GOES Xray  =   3.52000e-07           3           4          76          17           0        C2.5
est. ISN   =            36           7          52          31          10           0        B7.6
 
together                             3.75       19.00       56.75       17.25        3.25     C2.5
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)