Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00237136           2          12          62          19           5        C4.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000973640           3          18          55          20           4        C2.8
GOES Xray  =   3.93000e-07           1           3          75          20           1        C3.3
est. ISN   =            64           4          11          58          25           2        C3.6
 
together                             2.50       11.00       62.50       21.00        3.00     C3.4
 
realized                                                                                      C3.0