Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00229042           1          25          62          11           1        C2.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000855747           7          50          35           8           0        B8.2
GOES Xray  =   1.65000e-07          12          57          25           6           0        B6.8
est. ISN   =            41           5          36          50           7           2        C1.3
 
together                             6.25       42.00       43.00        8.00        0.75     C1.0
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)