Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00226658           2          36          47          15           0        C1.6
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000830005           4          47          41           8           0        B9.8
GOES Xray  =   1.34000e-07           7          62          30           1           0        B6.6
est. ISN   =            44           4          28          60           7           1        C1.5
 
together                             4.25       43.25       44.50        7.75        0.25     C1.1
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)