Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00223289           6          53          35           6           0        B8.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000738051          24          40          29           7           0        B4.0
GOES Xray  =   7.47000e-08          11          67          20           2           0        B3.1
est. ISN   =            10          29          51          18           2           0        B2.5
 
together                            17.50       52.75       25.50        4.25        0.00     B4.3
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)