Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00223003           5          50          38           7           0        B9.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000737229          25          41          27           7           0        B3.7
GOES Xray  =   7.84000e-08           9          68          20           3           0        B3.5
est. ISN   =            13          20          62          17           1           0        B2.7
 
together                            14.75       55.25       25.50        4.50        0.00     B4.4
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)