Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00225703           5          43          43           9           0        C1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000795026          13          47          35           5           0        B7.0
GOES Xray  =   1.89000e-07           6          45          40           9           0        B9.9
est. ISN   =            25           7          55          32           6           0        B6.5
 
together                             7.75       47.50       37.50        7.25        0.00     B8.4
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)