Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00224550           5          49          41           5           0        B9.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000789569          13          47          35           5           0        B7.0
GOES Xray  =   1.52000e-07          10          62          26           2           0        B6.7
est. ISN   =             9          37          46          15           2           0        B1.6
 
together                            16.25       51.00       29.25        3.50        0.00     B5.5
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)