Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00222092           6          49          39           6           0        B8.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000721343          28          48          19           5           0        B3.4
GOES Xray  =   8.50000e-08           6          63          28           3           0        B4.1
est. ISN   =            30           5          46          41           8           0        B9.9
 
together                            11.25       51.50       31.75        5.50        0.00     B6.0
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)