Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00222065           6          49          39           6           0        B8.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000723156          30          47          18           5           0        B2.8
GOES Xray  =   8.43000e-08           7          62          28           3           0        B4.1
est. ISN   =            16          16          65          16           3           0        B2.7
 
together                            14.75       55.75       25.25        4.25        0.00     B4.6
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)