Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00212873          35          57           6           2           0        B1.5
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000678802          27          55          15           3           0        B2.3
GOES Xray  =   6.71000e-08          15          68          16           1           0        B2.6
est. ISN   =            19          15          59          23           3           0        B3.6
 
together                            23.00       59.75       15.00        2.25        0.00     B2.5
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)