Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00213420          37          53           8           2           0        B1.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000675249          29          56          13           2           0        B2.0
GOES Xray  =   5.67000e-08          31          62           7           0           0        B1.6
est. ISN   =            10          29          51          18           2           0        B2.5
 
together                            31.50       55.50       11.50        1.50        0.00     B1.8
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)