Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00230091           1          21          58          17           3        C2.8
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000908275           3          28          50          16           3        C2.3
GOES Xray  =   9.63000e-07           1           0          40          48          11        M1.1
est. ISN   =            65           4          10          63          21           2        C3.8
 
together                             2.25       14.75       52.75       25.50        4.75     C4.3
 
realized                                                                                      X1.3