Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00211822          39          57           3           1           0        B1.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000656106          35          57           7           1           0        B1.5
GOES Xray  =   2.80000e-08          61          36           2           1           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
est. ISN   =             8          50          41           9           0           0        B1.0
 
together                            46.25       47.75        5.25        0.75        0.00     B1.1
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)