Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00212176          37          59           3           1           0        B1.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000659481          32          59           8           1           0        B1.6
GOES Xray  =   3.83000e-08          59          38           2           1           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
est. ISN   =            10          29          51          18           2           0        B2.5
 
together                            39.25       51.75        7.75        1.25        0.00     B1.4
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)