Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00213621          35          52          11           2           0        B2.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000688937          24          53          19           4           0        B3.2
GOES Xray  =   4.73000e-08          52          43           4           1           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
est. ISN   =            13          20          62          17           1           0        B2.7
 
together                            32.75       52.50       12.75        2.00        0.00     B1.8
 
realized                                                                                      B2.8