Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00213112          36          55           7           2           0        B1.5
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000674337          28          58          12           2           0        B2.0
GOES Xray  =   3.47000e-08          61          36           2           1           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
est. ISN   =            10          29          51          18           2           0        B2.5
 
together                            38.50       50.00        9.75        1.75        0.00     B1.5
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)