Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00212576          36          57           6           1           0        B1.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000661362          31          60           8           1           0        B1.6
GOES Xray  =   3.25000e-09          61          36           2           1           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
est. ISN   =            17          17          63          17           3           0        B2.9
 
together                            36.25       54.00        8.25        1.50        0.00     B1.5
 
realized                                                                                      B1.6