Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00213184          36          54           8           2           0        B1.6
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000663291          29          61           9           1           0        B1.9
GOES Xray  =   1.11000e-08          61          36           2           1           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
est. ISN   =            10          29          51          18           2           0        B2.5
 
together                            38.75       50.50        9.25        1.50        0.00     B1.4
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)