Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00225806           5          40          45          10           0        C1.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000790660          13          49          32           6           0        B7.0
GOES Xray  =   6.91000e-08          13          69          17           1           0        B2.8
est. ISN   =             0          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            20.50       49.50       25.75        4.25        0.00     B4.4
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)