Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00225771           5          42          44           9           0        C1.5
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000793021          14          45          36           5           0        B7.1
GOES Xray  =   6.95000e-08          13          69          17           1           0        B2.8
est. ISN   =             0          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            20.75       49.00       26.50        3.75        0.00     B4.4
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)