Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00225313           6          43          44           7           0        C1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000778496          13          49          31           7           0        B6.8
GOES Xray  =   7.01000e-08          13          69          17           1           0        B2.8
est. ISN   =             0          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            20.75       50.25       25.25        3.75        0.00     B4.2
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)