Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00226038           4          36          48          12           0        C1.5
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000797692          15          48          33           4           0        B5.6
GOES Xray  =   7.71000e-08          10          67          20           3           0        B3.4
est. ISN   =             4          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            20.00       47.75       27.50        4.75        0.00     B4.9
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)