Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00227009          18          47          32           3           0        B5.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000833301          15          45          33           7           0        B6.8
GOES Xray  =   5.14883e-08          39          53           7           1           0        B1.4
est. ISN   =            10          29          51          18           2           0        B2.5
 
together                            25.25       49.00       22.50        3.25        0.00     B3.0
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)