Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00226222          22          45          30           3           0        B5.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000808248          20          42          33           5           0        B5.3
GOES Xray  =   3.04984e-08          61          36           2           1           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
est. ISN   =             8          50          41           9           0           0        B1.0
 
together                            38.25       41.00       18.50        2.25        0.00     B1.8
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)